China’s Policy in the South China Sea, 1990–2010

Abstract

China’s policy regarding the South China Sea has been characterized by strategic ambiguity, manifested at times in a conciliatory approach and at other times in the brandishing of force, with the aim of undermining bilateral relations between the littoral states on the one hand and competing with them on the other, and with the aim of building bilateral alliances with other states bordering the South China Sea, The aim of this policy is to ward off foreign interference, specifically US intervention in the conflict and competition over this region; yet, at the same time, Chinese leaders are conducting assertive activities in the disputed waters of the South China Sea. In this context, the study explores the history of China’s policies in the South China Sea. Furthermore, whilst there is a general understanding of the external motivations and internal drivers behind China’s policy towards the South China Sea, these factors are often analyzed and examined in isolation. In this research, we will address both factors simultaneously and draw conclusions regarding the likelihood of armed conflict in the region, particularly with regard to the claimant coastal states and the centrality of the US role.